The fallout from the shutdowns mandated by the coronavirus pandemic will affect every major metro area in the country, but some far more than others.

In a special report, Yardi Matrix assessed the industries affected most by the COVID-19 closures and which of the country’s Top 50 metro regions will likely by most affected by closures and slowdowns in those sectors. The segments expected to experience the highest job losses are lodging and hospitality, retail and mining/logging/construction.

Based on the Matrix analysis, Las Vegas, coastal Florida and Houston are most likely to be hit hard by job losses. Florida had three metro regions on the list: the southwest coastal portion of the state, followed by Fort Lauderdale and Orlando.
Each is heavily dependent on one or more of the most affected employment categories. The economies in Las Vegas and the Florida metro areas depend on travel and tourism, while Houston’s economy remains driven to a large degree by energy.

“By the time all is said and done, every industry and metro will be impacted by the dramatic decline in economic activity,” states the report. Although estimates vary as to the exact percent GDP will decline for Q2 of 2020, some forecasters have predicted it could be as high as 34%.

Larger metro area with more diversified economies have the least dependence on the three at-risk job categories as a percentage of total employment. “Washington, D.C. (25%) and San Francisco and New York (each 26%) have barely one-quarter of jobs in the most at-risk segments,” according to the report. “Washington’s economy is driven by the federal government, while New York and San Francisco are centers of finance, media and technology.”

However, even the larger, more diversified economies will feel the pain of job losses, “in part because diversity comes with size,” the report states. “New York has 1.9 million jobs in the three most at-risk categories, by far the most in the nation.

“Three other metros have more than one million total jobs in the at-risk segments: Chicago (1.4 million), Los Angeles (1.4 million) and Houston (1.1 million),” the report states. “That suggests the impact will be spread out, even among metros with a smaller percentage of jobs at risk.”

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