U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls Sharply in September
Business research group The Conference Board indicated that consumer confidence fell sharply in September 2019, according to its monthly Consumer Confidence Survey. The index fell to 125.1 in September, down from a revised August, 2019 reading of 134.2. Additionally, consumers’ assessments of current economic conditions and expectations for the next six months also fell.
The global slowdown, in combination with the trade war with China, have contributed to uncertainties clouding the U.S. economic outlook. And, while consumer spending, so far, has shielded the economy from some of the adverse impact of tariff and trade issues, The Conference Board’s numbers are demonstrating uneasiness among U.S. households.
The Conference Board’s Lynn Franco indicated that “the pattern of uncertainty and volatility has persisted for much of the year, and it appears confidence is plateauing.” She added that, even as confidence hovers around current levels for the next several months, “at some point, this continued uncertainty will begin to diminish consumers’ confidence in the expansion.”
The numbers represented “a worrying early sign that consumer spending, the key bastion of strength for the U.S. economy in recent months, may not be immune to the trade war,” said Capital Economics’ Michael Pearce. And, Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Ian Shepherdson said the most recently imposed higher tariffs on Chinese consumer goods likely contributed to the drop in consumer expectations.
The survey indicated that respondents have also become more pessimistic about business and job market conditions. Fewer of those surveyed said they believed jobs were plentiful. This reversed a jump in a measure of labor-market optimism in August, which had been the highest since 2000.
Economists indicated that, while consumer confidence has become more volatile, the economy, itself, appears to be resilient for now. “These signals are still a ‘flashing yellow light’ on the dashboard of U.S. growth, not yet a ‘red light,’ said a note from Contingent Macro Research.
For comments, questions or concerns, please contact Amy Sorter
- ◦Economy
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