What a difference 10 months makes. At the start of 2018, optimism concerning the global economic outlook was strong, according to a Reuters poll. Economists, at the time, were unanimous about continued strong growth on an international scale.
The news organization’s most recent poll among 500 economists show that the outlook is eroding for 18 of the 44 economies polled, with 23 unchanged. The latest poll also indicated that growth in about 70% of 44 economies had already peaked.
Janet Henry, global economist at HSBC, noted that, while the U.S. is booming, the rest of the world is slowing or stagnating. “The stresses caused by this divergence are playing out uncomfortably in many emerging markets,” she told Reuters.
A majority of the economists polled said the top two triggers for the next global downturn were further escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions, and tightening financial conditions, caused by sell-offs in global equities, or a rapid rise in government bond yields.
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