Remote Work Could Spur Move to Exurbs and Secondary Cities
CRE industry members have wondered aloud what the advent of stay-at-home orders will mean for office use in the long term. Now, Zillow is asking a similar question about the residential sector.
“Where people choose to live has traditionally been tied to where they work, a dynamic that through the past decade spurred extreme home value growth and an affordability crisis in coastal job centers,” according to Zillow. “But the post-pandemic recovery could mitigate or even produce the opposite effect and drive a boom in secondary cities and exurbs, prompted not by a fear of density but by a seismic shift toward remote work.”
A recent Zillow survey conducted by The Harris Poll finds that 75% of Americans working from home due to COVID-19 say they would prefer to continue doing so at least half the time, if given the option, after the pandemic subsides. Two-thirds of employees working from home due to COVID-19 would be at least somewhat likely to consider moving if they had the flexibility to work from home as often as they want.
Many employed Americans are trying to square the desire to work remotely with the functionality and size of their existing homes. Among employees who would consider moving if given the flexibility to work from home, nearly one-third say they would consider moving in order to live in a home with a dedicated office space (31%), to live in a larger home (30%) and to live in a home with more rooms (29%).
A Zillow analysis finds that 46% of current households have a spare bedroom that could be used as an office. But that percentage drops off by more than 10 points in dense, expensive metros such as Los Angeles, New York, San Jose, San Francisco and San Diego, where far fewer homes have spare rooms.
“Moving away from the central core has traditionally offered affordability at the cost of your time and gas money,” said Skylar Olsen, senior principal economist at Zillow. “Relaxing those costs by working remotely could mean more households choose those larger homes farther out, easing price pressure on urban and inner suburban areas.”
She added, though, “That means they’d also be moving farther from a wider variety of restaurants, shops, yoga studios and art galleries. Given the value many place on access to such amenities, we’re not talking about the rise of the rural homesteader on a large scale. Future growth under broader remote work would still favor suburban communities or secondary cities that offer those amenities, along with more spacious homes and larger lots.”
For comments, questions or concerns, please contact Paul Bubny
- ◦Economy
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