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Long-Term Demand Remains Positive for Seniors Housing

National  + Weekender  | 

Although seniors housing still faces challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic subsides, the sector is on a trajectory to grow due to long-term demand remaining positive, JLL Valuation Advisory reported.

As the seniors housing and nursing care sector navigates its way through the current pandemic, JLL Valuation Advisory anticipates the sector facing its strongest demand ever. Construction delays from the pandemic will magnify the long-term supply shortage, and, with the Baby Boomers within approximately 10 years of occupancy, medium and long-term investment remains positive. Additionally, the need to serve the middle-income population will continue to grow, due to the global impact of COVID-19.

“Investors remain bullish on seniors housing and care investments,” said managing director Zach Bowyer, head of alternatives asset sectors with JLL Valuation Advisory. “We anticipate market fundamentals to steadily improve and the market to re-stabilize between two and four years, depending on the location.”

The seniors housing and nursing care sector had one of its strongest years for transactions in 2019, and 2020 was shaping up to be another solid year for the sector prior to the onset of the pandemic. Even though transaction volume fell 48% year-over-year to $9.2 billion in 2020, 53% of respondents to a JLL Valuation Advisory survey reported they plan to increase their exposure to the sector in 2021. 

The survey also revealed that, after a trend toward more lifestyle-focused segments of seniors housing, participants are moving to more traditional and need-driven segments. Thirty-seven percent of respondents identified assisted living as the most sought-after investment opportunity in 2021.

Additionally, despite the disruption, available capital for commercial real estate investment remains near all-time highs, with the seniors housing and care sector noticing a significant increase in the percentage of private capital placement. 

“Dry powder for commercial real estate investments are at an all-time high,” said managing director Bryan Lockard, co-lead for the seniors housing practice. “Investors are being cautiously selective, as short-term and long-term uncertainty remains for most sectors, with confidence increasing from a successful vaccine rollout within seniors housing communities and declining infection rates.” 

Seniors housing valuations dropped to an eight-year low last year, with an average price per unit of $141,800 reported for 2020, down 16% year-over-year, and the average cap rates for seniors housing transactions increased year-over-year by 50 basis points to 6.5% after reaching an all-time low of 5.9% in 2019. 

Conversely, after four consecutive years of declines, the average price per bed for nursing homes increased by nearly 20% to $88,600 in 2020, marking the second highest annual price point for nursing homes on record.  

“It’s important to note that the long-term demographic tailwinds for the sector continue to be intact,” added JLL managing director Brian Chandler, co-lead for the seniors housing practice. “Many transactions in 2020 represented liquidation events, since owners who are well-capitalized opted to hold and operate through the pandemic with expectations of a rebound in valuations.”

Pictured: Corde Terra senior housing in San Jose, CA.


Inside The Story

JLL Valuation Advisory

About Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny serves as Senior Content Director for Connect Commercial Real Estate, a role to which he brings 13-plus years’ experience covering the commercial real estate industry and 30-plus years in business-to-business journalism. In this capacity, he oversees daily operations while also reporting on both local/regional markets and national trends, covering individual transactions across all property types, as well as delving into broader subject matter. He produces 15-20 daily news stories per day and works with the Connect team and clients to develop longer-form content, ranging from Q&As to thought-leadership pieces. Prior to joining Connect, Paul was Managing Editor for both Real Estate Forum and at American Lawyer Media, where he oversaw operations at both publications while also producing daily news and feature-length articles. His tenure in B2B publishing stretches back into the print era, and he has served as Editor in Chief on four national trade publications. Since 1999, Paul has volunteered as the newsletter editor of passenger rail advocacy groups (one national, one local).