Although the Carlyle Group’s headquarters in Washington, D.C. rather than New York City once seemed like a real point of differentiation for the private equity firm, co-CEO Glenn Youngkin said in the latest Walker & Dunlop webcast that the firm today is more global than Washington-centric. It’s that global perspective that Carlyle will rely on to navigate the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting downturn, he said.

Youngkin and his team don’t expect the downturn to be short-lived. He told the webcast audience Wednesday that although it’s hard to predict what the recovery will look like, the general view at Carlyle is that it will be U-shaped, rather than V-shaped. “It’s going to be a meaningfully volatile nine to 12 months ahead of us,” he said.

Asked by Walker & Dunlop CEO Willy Walker where we are in the cycle, Youngkin responded, “We’re at the bottom of the cycle today. I don’t think anybody expected to be in a global pandemic, with the entire world, at one time or another, shutting down.”

COVID-19 aside, the current economic environment already felt like late-cycle from Carlyle’s perspective. The firm had already begun preparing its portfolio accordingly, said Youngkin, even before what has proven to be “an extraordinary economic shock.”

Within the firm’s global theater of operations, Carlyle has seen some “encouraging” data coming from China in terms of the speed of its recovery from the pandemic, Youngkin said. There has been a rebound in consumer spending but not yet one in business investment, though.

“The areas that we would expect to be tough are tough,” he said.

In the course of the hour-long webcast, Youngkin also drilled down into the various sectors where Carlyle is active—and where the investment opportunities may be. On-demand replays of the webcast are available by clicking here.

Get CRE News in 150 words

For comments, questions or concerns, please contact Paul Bubny