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UCLA Anderson Forecast: No Recession but Weak Economy in 2024
The latest quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast foresees a weak economy in 2024, followed by a return to trend growth rates in 2025—but no recession in the near term. That outlook applies broadly to the U.S. and California economies.
“The California economy is, again, growing faster than the U.S. economy,” according to UCLA Anderson. “The risks to the forecast are political and geopolitical. Interest rates might still disrupt the current expansion on the downside and increased international immigration and accelerated onshoring of technical manufacturing on the upside.”
On the national front, the impact of higher interest rates will materialize in restraining growth in 2024. “As the Fed turns its attention away from aggressive interest rate increases and inflation slowly works its way back to under 3% annually, the forecast calls for Fed policy to take a neutral stance and economic growth to rebound to trend rates,” said UCLA Anderson.
- ◦Economy
