Real GDP increased by an annualized 2.6% in the third quarter, reversing the declines posted in 2022’s first half and allaying concerns about a recession, Marcus & Millichap reported. However, the firm’s latest research brief points to a likely slowdown ahead.
“This turnaround was predominantly driven by improved net external trade, as exports rose 14.4% and imports fell 6.9%, a dynamic that is unlikely to continue,” according to Marcus & Millichap. “Economic concerns abroad and a strong U.S. dollar will weigh on export activity, while the drop in imports — a benefit to the GDP calculation — is nevertheless a signal of weakening domestic consumer demand.”
Other GDP contributors fell, notably a 26.4% drop in fixed residential investment. “Paired with less anticipated government spending, these signals point to more temperate GDP growth in the coming quarters,” the research brief states.
The research brief also predicts slower growth in the federal funds rate, noting that the Federal Reserve is likely to implement a fourth consecutive 75-basis-point hike in the overnight lending rate in November, but hold December’s increase to 50 bps.
Paul Bubny serves as Senior Content Director for Connect Commercial Real Estate, a role to which he brings 13-plus years’ experience covering the commercial real estate industry and 30-plus years in business-to-business journalism. In this capacity, he oversees daily operations while also reporting on both local/regional markets and national trends, covering individual transactions across all property types, as well as delving into broader subject matter. He produces 15-20 daily news stories per day and works with the Connect team and clients to develop longer-form content, ranging from Q&As to thought-leadership pieces.
Prior to joining Connect, Paul was Managing Editor for both Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com at American Lawyer Media, where he oversaw operations at both publications while also producing daily news and feature-length articles. His tenure in B2B publishing stretches back into the print era, and he has served as Editor in Chief on four national trade publications.
Since 1999, Paul has volunteered as the newsletter editor of passenger rail advocacy groups (one national, one local).
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