Trepp Survey Predicts Rise in CRE Distress by End of 2022
Trepp’s newly released 2022 CRE Sentiment Survey found most respondents indicating that headwinds are outpacing tailwinds. More than half said that economic conditions and higher interest rates would impact their businesses negatively.
Eighty-three percent of survey participants predict that within the next six months, CRE/CMBS delinquencies will worsen—a reversal of the overall trend of declining CMBS delinquencies over the past 25 months. A smaller majority (52.8%) said the same about commercial real estate fundamentals, with investment sales activity expected to fare worse than leasing.
Seventy percent of respondents expect that the office sector will see the biggest increase in distress for the remainder of 2022. The sector scored that dubious distinction by a wide margin: just 12.9% of respondents predicted that second-ranked retail would see the most distress. Office also led in more granular questions about declines in economic occupancy and net effective rents.
Paul Bubny serves as Senior Content Director for Connect Commercial Real Estate, a role to which he brings 13-plus years’ experience covering the commercial real estate industry and 30-plus years in business-to-business journalism. In this capacity, he oversees daily operations while also reporting on both local/regional markets and national trends, covering individual transactions across all property types, as well as delving into broader subject matter. He produces 15-20 daily news stories per day and works with the Connect team and clients to develop longer-form content, ranging from Q&As to thought-leadership pieces.
Prior to joining Connect, Paul was Managing Editor for both Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com at American Lawyer Media, where he oversaw operations at both publications while also producing daily news and feature-length articles. His tenure in B2B publishing stretches back into the print era, and he has served as Editor in Chief on four national trade publications.
Since 1999, Paul has volunteered as the newsletter editor of passenger rail advocacy groups (one national, one local).
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