Year-end rent growth articles and reports by data analytics and commercial real estate firms agreed on one thing. Namely, that apartment rent growth was slim to non-existent in 2025.

Depending on the source, year-over-year rent growth stood at 1.1% (Cushman & Wakefield) or 0.6% (RealPage). Meanwhile, Yardi Matrix reported absolutely no rent growth over the past year, marking “the weakest showing in five years.”

However, experts told Connect CRE that the apparently flat-lining metric was more an expectation than a concerning or unexpected surprise. “Broadly speaking, rent growth in 2025 was slower than in the immediate post-COVID years,” explained Dwight Dunton, founder, CEO and CIO with Bonaventure. “That shouldn’t surprise anyone, as we were coming off an unsurprisingly strong run.”

Normalization, Not Hysteria

Post-COVID, especially between 2022 and 2024, apartment rents broke records, as homeownership affordability challenges loomed and remote workers headed toward rental units in less-crowded suburbs.

The huge demand and promises of increased rental revenue drove more multifamily unit development, which again broke records.

However, most have found that double-digit rent growth isn’t sustainable. “After several years in which rent gains ran ahead of long-term trends, 2025 has looked more like a normalization phase,” said Western National Property Management President and COO Laura Khouri.

David Fletcher was even more optimistic. “Rent growth in 2025 reflected a period of measured improvement, following the subdued performance of the previous two years,” said Fletcher, Excelsa Holding’s Managing Director and Head of Acquisitions. “While increases were modest on a national basis, the sector avoided the deeper corrections some analysts expected.”

It’s About the Geography

Another consideration is that not all national markets experienced flat or negative rent growth.

Brian Connolly, founder and CEO of Feasibly, explained that many markets had flat or slightly negative growth, with submarkets within markets undergoing slight year-over-year declines.

Khouri pointed out that high job-performing markets with moderate new supply outperformed. In the meantime, “pockets that are still digesting heavy deliveries have underperformed,” she said. She pointed to Sun Belt and Mountain metros as markets with abundant new supply that relied on higher concessions to maintain occupancy.

Investors Management Group Karlin Conklin agreed, indicating that 2025 wasn’t a year for pricing power. Rather, “it was a year of protecting occupancy,” said Conklin, who serves as IMG’s president and COO.

What’s to Come

Yardi Matrix anticipated that 450,000 new units would be delivered in 2026. At the same time, RealPage forecasts deliveries could fall to 300,000 units in the coming year. Both data analytics firms acknowledged that, while these numbers represent a decline from recent years, they don’t necessarily signal an automatic increase in rents.

As such, most experts indicated that continued normalization of rent growth should be the main theme for 2026. “We anticipate stabilization, followed by modest acceleration toward long-term historical average,” Connolly said. More improvement is expected in the second half of 2026 as occupancy and rent growth improve, he added.

Furthermore, as supply declines, “concessions should soften, and operators may capture modest rent improvements,” Conklin predicted.

Added Khouri: “As new starts have slowed and the 2023-2024 construction surge moves through lease-up, many markets should see improving fundamentals, especially where job growth remains solid, and household formation recovers.”

Dunton said he also anticipates that 2026’s rent growth should mirror that experienced in 2025. But once again, the forecast depends on the region, with softer, oversupplied markets continuing to struggle through until their inventory dwindles.

“Strong, supply-disciplined markets should continue to outperform,” he added.

An earlier version of this story appeared on ApartmentBuildings.com.