Texas Economic Activity Index Marks the Sixth Consecutive Monthly Gain

Through September, Texas had recovered 92 percent of the jobs lost in spring 2020, on net. This brought the state unemployment rate down to 5.6 percent, still well above the national average of 4.8 percent. However, above-average job growth in Texas is forecast this winter as the state economy continues to normalize.

Comerica Bank’s Texas Economic Activity Index increased in August to 126.5. August’s index reading was 27.4 percent above the recent low of 99.3 set in June 2020. The index averaged 112.1 points for all of 2020, 13.5 points below the average for 2019. July’s index reading was revised to 126.1.

This economic activity marks the sixth consecutive monthly gain and the 13th increase in the last 14 months. The August index level of 126.5 is about even with the pre-pandemic readings from very early 2020. Seven index components were positive in August. Those were nonfarm payrolls, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing starts, house prices, industrial electricity demand, drilling rig count and total state trade. Only hotel occupancy and state sales tax revenues declined in August.

Higher oil and natural gas prices this fall are supporting profitability in the state’s energy sector and motivating increased business investment. Even with higher product prices, the energy sector, like all other businesses, is facing higher input prices and labor shortages. The upward trend in the state’s drilling rig count steepened in September, reaching 250 active rigs in mid-October, still less than half of the late-2018 level. Comerica expects the drilling rig count to continue to trend up through the end of this year.