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Student Housing Pre-Leasing Numbers Slow YoY – Somewhat
Though the 2024-2025 college/university school year doesn’t officially open until August (at the earliest), student housing pre-leasing has been underway for several months. According to numbers released by research firms RealPage Analytics and Yardi Matrix, pre-leasing occupancy is still relatively strong. However, both reports point out that the pace has slowed.
RealPage, which examines metrics from 175 core universities, reported that as of May 2024, the pre-lease rate stood at 78.6%, compared to the 80.3% reported during the same time last year. “May’s pre-lease rate also falls below the May 2022 pre-lease rate for Fall 2023 at 79.5%,” RealPage analysts commented.
On the other hand, about 15 schools among the RealPage 175 reported pre-lease occupancy at or above 90%. These institutions included the University of Mississippi, the University of Arkansas and Virginia Tech, which “generally lease up more quickly than average,” The RealPage experts said.
Meanwhile, Yardi Matrix tracks beds at 200 universities and indicated that pre-leasing hit 80% in 2024, “nearly identical to May 2023.” Though this year’s numbers matched last year’s, the Yardi Matrix analysts acknowledged a slowing pace in recent months.
Measuring Rent Growth
On the rent growth side, the Yardi 200 and RealPage 150 reported a year-over-year increase. Yardi Matrix indicated that average rent per bed stood at $897 in May, a 5.3% increase from last year and a “new high.” On the other hand, RealPage’s 4.8% rent growth report was dubbed “the lowest rate seen so far this pre-lease season.” However, some schools reported double-digit growth, like the University of Tennessee (25% year-over-year) and the University of Kentucky and Purdue University, which reported rent growth of over 10%.
The Over-Summer Outlook
The two firms also differed in their outlook for summer leasing. RealPage analysts anticipate that, while pre-lease momentum tends to take a downturn over the summer months as students leave campus, “the next three months of the pre-lease season could see approximately a 5% jump in pre-lease momentum, month-over-month if the last two summers are any indication.”
Meanwhile, Yardi Matrix’s experts explain that a delay in processing Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FASFA) requests could hinder pre-lease growth over the next three months, “particularly at some schools that rely on incoming freshmen to fill remaining beds in the summer.”
The Yardi Matrix analysts said 10% fewer 2024 high school senior class members completed these student aid forms as of May than the 2023 senior class. “Many experts expect this to impact enrollment growth this year and beyond, particularly among lower-income students and community college,” according to the Yard Matrix analysts.
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