Retail Numbers and the “Extended” Holiday Shopping Season

With the calendar page turning to November, retailers are directing efforts toward Black Friday and holiday shoppers. Is it possible that the upcoming rough-and-tumble Thanksgiving weekend event and holiday shopping season could increase retail sales performance in 2023? Furthermore, what’s going on with the “extended” holiday shopping season?

In a recent article, ongoing inflation and high interest rates have “kept retail visits below 2022 since late July.” Though back-to-school shopping perked things up a bit, retail traffic fell in September. The “muted” retail performance seems to be impacting the early holiday season as well, which is off to a slow start. The article indicated that some consumers might be awaiting Black Friday discounts or “the urgency of the approaching holidays to begin shelling out for gifts.”

But in comparing 2023 to the pre-pandemic times of 2019, “since the week of September 25th, the Yo4Y visit gap has remained narrower than the YoY visit gap – perhaps because this year’s consumers have already begun buying their gifts,” the article noted.

Changes Over the Years

According to Ethan Chernofsky, senior vice president of marketing at Placer.ai, 2021 saw retailers driving sales earlier in the season “in order to combat expected challenges in the supply chain.” He told Connect CRE that the actions led to a jump in shopping activity during October. “This speaks to a certain audience segment that wants to get their shopping done earlier,” he remarked.

None of this lessens the importance of Black Friday to retailers. Nor does it suggest a massive decline in visits during the Thanksgiving weekend and holiday seasons. “Essentially, this period is still the most important for many retailers,” Chernofsky said. “It has just seen a decline in the magnitude of that importance.”

The Performance of Key Categories

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Discount & Dollar Stores sector continues outperforming the other sectors and “are likely to continue drawing visits from consumers looking to save on both essential and discretionary products,” the Placer.ai article said. Clothing chains are being helped by their off-price brands and could also attract more visitors interested in holiday attire.

The big surprise in the Placer.ai data is the Office Supplies category, which is staying close to 2022 numbers. This follows a downturn during the back-to-school season “when some shoppers likely traded down in favor of Discount & Dollar Stores,” the article explained. While pens, pencils and paper aren’t typically considered goods for holiday shopping, the article said that “the segment’s relative strength could indicate that consumers are still willing to visit specialty stores to purchase brand-name items for specific uses.”

The Takeaway

Though Black Friday was once the launch of the official holiday shopping season, “the idea of an extended holiday season should be embraced by retailers because it allows them to provide different experiences that will speak to different audiences,” Chernofsky said. Some shoppers like the excitement and energy of Black Friday. Others want just to get their holiday shopping done.

“The holiday season is still critical, but it is changing,” Chernofsky explained. “Part of that change is recognizing that the period of time it hits has been extended. That creates more opportunities for retailers to create urgency and excitement for consumers.”