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“Relatively Stable” 2026 Economic Outlook Bodes Well for CRE
Next year could provide relief for commercial real estate from the economic volatility the sector has seen in 2025, Marcus & Millichap said in a Research Brief. The Blue Chip consensus forecast of 44 economists projects GDP growth of 2.5% for the third quarter of this year, slowing to an annualized gain of 1.0% for the end of 2025 but improving to 1.8% for full-year 2026.
“The majority of contributing economists are not predicting extended inflation risk, nor chance of recession,” Marcus & Millichap reported. The consensus calls for the Consumer Price Index to remain range-bound in the 3% band for the balance of this year and through next year.
Given a “relatively stable environment” implied by this consensus, next year could represent “a clear positive” for CRE. However, Marcus & Millichap cautioned, “there is no guarantee these forecasts will come to fruition. There are substantive headwinds that could ultimately derail many of these predictions, which would impact the performance of different various commercial property sectors.”
The Research Brief advises monitoring U.S. trade policies, the inflation outlook and hiring. Marcus & Millichap will hold a live webcast on Oct. 29 to discuss the 2026 investment outlook.
- ◦Economy
