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RCA’s CRE Economist Puts Market Turbulence into Perspective

The recent turbulence in the market, stock market volatility, rising interest rates, bankruptcies and fears of inflation prompted us to ask: What does it all mean for the commercial real estate industry? Real Capital Analytics’ CRE Economist Jim Costello weighs in with his analysis of what’s going on and its expected impact.

Really, no one knows. The increases in the 10-year UST should add volatility to the market for a bit, as everyone tries to figure out where things will shake out. Could we have a 600-point increase tomorrow?

In terms of the impact on CRE, it will take time. Remember, deals take maybe 20 weeks to close. Deals underway now may go forward easily if they have tied up debt already with rate locks.

For the ones that have not, the SOFR has been pretty stable since the end of September. It had bottomed out at 1.92, went up to 2.25 and slid slowly to 2.15. So what, 25 bps increase in the benchmark rate for lending. IF lenders keep their spreads constant that seems manageable.

I would expect though that if this turbulence in the stock market and the 10-year UST continues, that the pace of deal volume would slow into the big year-end Q4 deal season as turmoil always leads to some caution.

Don’t miss Connect National Investment & Finance on Oct. 18 to hear what industry leaders and major stakeholders have to say about the state of the market and what’s next in this current cycle. Click here to register.


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About Dennis Kaiser

Dennis Kaiser is Vice President of Content and Public Relations for Connect Commercial Real Estate. Dennis is a communications leader with more than 30 years of experience including as a journalist and in corporate and agency marketing communications roles. He is responsible for Connect’s client content operations and is involved in a range of initiatives ranging from content strategy, message development, copywriting, media relations, social media and content marketing services. In his most recent corporate communications roles, he led a regional public relations effort across Southern California for CBRE, played a key marketing role on JLL’s national retail team, and was responsible for directing the global public relations effort at ValleyCrest, the nation’s largest commercial landscape services company. In addition to his vast commercial real estate experience, Dennis has worked on communications and launch strategies for a number of residential projects such as Disney’s Celebration in Florida, Ritter Ranch in Palmdale California (7,200 homes, 22,000 acres), WaterColor in Florida and PremierGarage in Phoenix. Dennis’s agency background included firms such as Idea Hall and Macy + Associates. He has earned an outstanding reputation with organization leaders as a trusted advisor, strategic program implementer, consensus builder and exceptional collaborator. Dennis has developed and managed national communications programs for Fortune 500 companies to start-ups, both public and private. He’s successfully worked with journalists across the globe representing clients involved in major-breaking news stories, product launches, media tours, and company news announcements. Dennis has been involved in a host of charitable and community organizations including the American Cancer Society, Easter Seals, BoyScouts, Chrysalis Foundation, Freedom For Life, HOLA, L.A.’s BEST, Reach Out and Read, Super Bowl Host Committee, and Thunderbirds Charities.

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