Politics Tapping Brakes on CRE Investments

Sales of investment properties hit a post-recession high in 2015, and while moderation was anticipated for 2016, it was still expected to be a strong year. Political events were not expected to have an impact.

Then came the November Surprise.

According to Marcus & Millichap’s report, “Emerging Trends: Expectation Gap Widens,” the presidential election results have already impacted the commercial real estate market. A 60-basis-point increase in the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury, combined with potential changes to the tax code in 2017, are prompting investors to step back and rethink their strategies. Furthermore, transactions headed toward a 2016 close could be delayed – or cancelled.

Fourth quarters typically constitute 28.2% of annual commercial real estate activity. However, “the unexpected result of this election . . . will likely downshift transaction activity this year,” the report said.

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