Increased migration to Texas, particularly from higher-income states like California, has prompted concerns of diminished housing affordability as newcomers search and compete for housing. However, new analysis by the Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC) indicates migration patterns offer little explanation for the recent runup in home prices.

“There is essentially no correlation between Texas’ statewide home-price appreciation and migration patterns over the past 15 years,” said Wes Miller, senior research associate for TRERC at Texas A&M University.

Although the net flow of people into and out of Texas was balanced throughout the period, the economic profile of interstate movers evolved over time. Starting in 2014, the median income of interstate movers accelerated above their Texas counterparts and has persisted at an elevated level. In contrast, the $60,000 premium in median home value between interstate and intrastate buyers remained relatively constant for at least 15 years. 

While out-of-state movers do not appear to be driving annual home-price fluctuations at the aggregate level, they are more likely to affect specific neighborhoods or local markets at a smaller scale, according to TRERC.