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New CRE Loan Production Seen Increasing into Q4

Gantry reports a steady pace for new loan production through the third quarter of 2023, although current volume remains lower year-over-year after a record 2022. The volume and pace of new production is increasing into Q4, though, driven by a significant number of rate locked transactions expected to close by year-end, upcoming maturities and the emergence of price discovery for assets in a new era of higher interest rates.

“Market conditions are beginning to normalize and build in a new rate climate, so much so that every quarter of 2023 has exceeded the prior quarter,” said Tom Dao, principal with Gantry. “We forecast that our Q4 production will be our best quarter of 2023 with a solid pipeline already lined up for the first quarter of 2024 with maturity forwards. This can be directly correlated to near-term maturities and movement towards price discovery during a higher cost of capital market cycle.”

He continued, “We are beginning to see areas of concern in some markets, particularly in the office sector, due to near term maturities and leasing challenges. However, we are pleased to report strong performance from our portfolio and maintain confidence in the endurance of CRE fundamentals across all asset classes where leverage is conservative, and sponsorship is active.”

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Gantry's Dao

About Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny serves as Senior Content Director for Connect Commercial Real Estate, a role to which he brings 16-plus years’ experience covering the commercial real estate industry and 30-plus years in business-to-business journalism. In this capacity, he oversees daily operations while also reporting on both local/regional markets and national trends, covering individual transactions across all property types, as well as delving into broader subject matter. He produces 7-10 daily news stories per day and works with the Connect team and clients to develop longer-form content, ranging from Q&As to thought-leadership pieces. Prior to joining Connect, Paul was Managing Editor for both Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com at American Lawyer Media, where he oversaw operations at both publications while also producing daily news and feature-length articles. His tenure in B2B publishing stretches back into the print era, and he has served as Editor in Chief on four national trade publications. Since 1999, Paul has volunteered as the newsletter editor of passenger rail advocacy groups (one national, one local).

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