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A NAIOP Research Foundation report forecasts slower absorption of office space nationally through 2023 and into 2024

NAIOP Forecasts Further Tapering in Office Space Absorption

Given occupancy trends and concerns about a potential recession in 2023, net office space absorption in the fourth quarter of 2022 is forecast to be 7.1 million square feet nationally, according to the NAIOP Office Space Demand Forecast for Q4 2022, recently published by the NAIOP Research Foundation.  

Absorption in 2023 is forecast to slow to 8.1 million square feet for the year. Moving forward, the forecast projects absorption of 13.3 million square feet in the first three quarters of 2024. 

“A full return from remote working seems unlikely, but the office market will continue to adapt and evolve as new work patterns are established and the economy stabilizes,” said Marc Selvetelli, president and CEO of NAIOP. 

A deeper look into the numbers reveals an appetite specifically for high-quality office buildings, which may support leasing activity in newly completed buildings despite continued weakness across the office sector. 


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About Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny serves as Senior Content Director for Connect Commercial Real Estate, a role to which he brings 13-plus years’ experience covering the commercial real estate industry and 30-plus years in business-to-business journalism. In this capacity, he oversees daily operations while also reporting on both local/regional markets and national trends, covering individual transactions across all property types, as well as delving into broader subject matter. He produces 15-20 daily news stories per day and works with the Connect team and clients to develop longer-form content, ranging from Q&As to thought-leadership pieces. Prior to joining Connect, Paul was Managing Editor for both Real Estate Forum and at American Lawyer Media, where he oversaw operations at both publications while also producing daily news and feature-length articles. His tenure in B2B publishing stretches back into the print era, and he has served as Editor in Chief on four national trade publications. Since 1999, Paul has volunteered as the newsletter editor of passenger rail advocacy groups (one national, one local).

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