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MBA Sees CRE Loan Originations Declining, Maturities Increasing in 2023

Total commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending is expected to fall to $684 billion this year, a 15% decline from an expected 2022 total of $804 billion. This is according to an updated baseline forecast released by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) at the 2023 Commercial/Multifamily Finance Convention and Expo. 

Multifamily lending alone is expected to drop to $384 billion in 2023 – a 16% decline from last year’s expected total of $459 billion. MBA anticipates borrowing and lending will rebound in 2024 to $906 billion in total commercial real estate lending, including $486 billion in multifamily lending. 

“MBA’s updated forecast is built on a base case of economic weakness at the start of 2023 with a moderation in interest rates and an overall improvement in the economy as the year goes on,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s head of commercial real estate research.  

The association also forecasts that $331.2 billion of the $2.8 trillion of outstanding commercial and multifamily mortgages held by non-bank lenders and investors will mature in 2023, up 33% from the $249 billion that matured in 2022.  

Woodwell added, “We expect loan maturities and outstanding adjustable-rate loans to lead the testing of today’s market conditions. For long-term loans, the last decade has seen tremendous growth in property incomes and values – both of which will support properties’ abilities to support new loans. Properties with interest rate resets and shorter-term loans that transacted or refinanced more recently will be much more dependent on the particulars of that loan and property.”


Inside The Story

Mortgage Bankers Association

About Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny serves as Senior Content Director for Connect Commercial Real Estate, a role to which he brings 13-plus years’ experience covering the commercial real estate industry and 30-plus years in business-to-business journalism. In this capacity, he oversees daily operations while also reporting on both local/regional markets and national trends, covering individual transactions across all property types, as well as delving into broader subject matter. He produces 15-20 daily news stories per day and works with the Connect team and clients to develop longer-form content, ranging from Q&As to thought-leadership pieces. Prior to joining Connect, Paul was Managing Editor for both Real Estate Forum and at American Lawyer Media, where he oversaw operations at both publications while also producing daily news and feature-length articles. His tenure in B2B publishing stretches back into the print era, and he has served as Editor in Chief on four national trade publications. Since 1999, Paul has volunteered as the newsletter editor of passenger rail advocacy groups (one national, one local).

  • ◦Financing
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