New York & Tri-State + National + Finance | January 5, 2023

The Mortgage Bankers Association has forecast commercial mortgage volume of $700 billion for 2023, down 5% from the total for 2022

MBA Projects 5% Decline in Commercial Mortgage Volume for 2023

Total commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending is expected to fall to $700 billion this year, off 5% from 2022’s expected total of $740 billion, according to an updated baseline forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

“Uncertainty and volatility around the paths of the economy, interest rates and property valuations will likely continue to cause instability for commercial real estate markets well into this year,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s head of commercial real estate research. He noted that the members of the Federal Open Market Committee had very different expectations for the federal funds rate at 2022’s end than they did at the beginning.

Multifamily lending alone is expected to drop to $393 billion in 2023, an 11% decline from last year’s expected total. MBA anticipates borrowing and lending will rebound in 2024 to $887 billion in total commercial real estate lending and $483 billion in multifamily lending.

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About Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny serves as Senior Content Director for Connect Commercial Real Estate, a role to which he brings 13-plus years’ experience covering the commercial real estate industry and 30-plus years in business-to-business journalism. In this capacity, he oversees daily operations while also reporting on both local/regional markets and national trends, covering individual transactions across all property types, as well as delving into broader subject matter. He produces 15-20 daily news stories per day and works with the Connect team and clients to develop longer-form content, ranging from Q&As to thought-leadership pieces. Prior to joining Connect, Paul was Managing Editor for both Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com at American Lawyer Media, where he oversaw operations at both publications while also producing daily news and feature-length articles. His tenure in B2B publishing stretches back into the print era, and he has served as Editor in Chief on four national trade publications. Since 1999, Paul has volunteered as the newsletter editor of passenger rail advocacy groups (one national, one local).