National + Finance | August 3, 2023

MBA Forecasts 38% Decline in Commercial Mortgage Lending for 2023

Total commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending is expected to fall to $504 billion this year, a 38% decline from 2022’s total of $816 billion. That’s according to an updated baseline forecast released Thursday by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

Multifamily lending alone is expected to drop to $299 billion in 2023, also representing a 38% decline from last year’s total of $480 billion. MBA anticipates borrowing and lending will rebound in 2024 to $856 billion in total commercial real estate lending, with $452 billion of that total in multifamily lending.

“Higher and volatile interest rates, uncertainty about property values, and questions about some property fundamentals have led to an impasse in property sales and mortgage originations activity this year,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s head of commercial real estate research. “Our baseline economic forecast anticipates that interest rates will moderate over the next year and half, helping to break the current logjam in transaction activity and bringing relief to financing costs and property valuations.”

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About Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny serves as Senior Content Director for Connect Commercial Real Estate, a role to which he brings 13-plus years’ experience covering the commercial real estate industry and 30-plus years in business-to-business journalism. In this capacity, he oversees daily operations while also reporting on both local/regional markets and national trends, covering individual transactions across all property types, as well as delving into broader subject matter. He produces 15-20 daily news stories per day and works with the Connect team and clients to develop longer-form content, ranging from Q&As to thought-leadership pieces. Prior to joining Connect, Paul was Managing Editor for both Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com at American Lawyer Media, where he oversaw operations at both publications while also producing daily news and feature-length articles. His tenure in B2B publishing stretches back into the print era, and he has served as Editor in Chief on four national trade publications. Since 1999, Paul has volunteered as the newsletter editor of passenger rail advocacy groups (one national, one local).

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