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MBA Forecasts 29% Rise in CRE Loan Volume for 2024

Total commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending is expected to rise to $576 billion in 2024, a 29% increase from 2023’s estimated total of $444 billion. That’s according to an updated baseline forecast released Tuesday by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

Multifamily lending alone is expected to rise to $339 billion this year, up 25% from last year’s estimate of $271 billion. MBA anticipates borrowing and lending next year will increase to $717 billion in total commercial real estate lending, with $404 billion of that total in multifamily lending.

“2023 is likely to go into the record books as the slowest year for commercial real estate borrowing and lending in roughly a decade,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s head of commercial real estate research. “As the markets reset – on interest rates, property values, some property fundamentals and other factors – those volumes should pick up marginally. While up from last year’s levels, we still expect borrowing and lending in 2024 to be below what was seen going back to 2017.”

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About Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny serves as Senior Content Director for Connect Commercial Real Estate, a role to which he brings 16-plus years’ experience covering the commercial real estate industry and 30-plus years in business-to-business journalism. In this capacity, he oversees daily operations while also reporting on both local/regional markets and national trends, covering individual transactions across all property types, as well as delving into broader subject matter. He produces 7-10 daily news stories per day and works with the Connect team and clients to develop longer-form content, ranging from Q&As to thought-leadership pieces. Prior to joining Connect, Paul was Managing Editor for both Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com at American Lawyer Media, where he oversaw operations at both publications while also producing daily news and feature-length articles. His tenure in B2B publishing stretches back into the print era, and he has served as Editor in Chief on four national trade publications. Since 1999, Paul has volunteered as the newsletter editor of passenger rail advocacy groups (one national, one local).

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