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Industry leaders expect the current unsettled conditions in commercial real estate lending to stabilize during 2023, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association

MBA CREF Survey Forecasts Uncertainty Dissipating as 2023 Progresses

Industry leaders in the commercial and multifamily mortgage space consider today’s market unsettled, and most are confident that the unsettled conditions will slowly stabilize as 2023 progresses, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) 2023 Commercial Real Estate Finance (CREF) Outlook Survey. However, survey respondents aren’t expecting smooth sailing once the clouds dissipate. 

“Leaders of top commercial real estate finance firms believe that overall uncertainty will dissipate over the course of the year, but with a host of factors that will drag –rather than boost – the markets in 2023,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s head of commercial real estate research.  

The factors include office market fundamentals, short-term interest rates, inflation, long-term interest rates, the broader economy, and adjustable rate and short-term loans maturing in today’s market. “Industrial and apartment market fundamentals and changes in the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic are the only factors seen by more leaders as positive than negative for the market,” Woodwell said. 

Among other findings, the survey revealed that CRE finance leaders expect to have a slightly stronger appetite for lending than would-be borrowers will have for borrowing.


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Mortgage Bankers Association

About Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny serves as Senior Content Director for Connect Commercial Real Estate, a role to which he brings 13-plus years’ experience covering the commercial real estate industry and 30-plus years in business-to-business journalism. In this capacity, he oversees daily operations while also reporting on both local/regional markets and national trends, covering individual transactions across all property types, as well as delving into broader subject matter. He produces 15-20 daily news stories per day and works with the Connect team and clients to develop longer-form content, ranging from Q&As to thought-leadership pieces. Prior to joining Connect, Paul was Managing Editor for both Real Estate Forum and at American Lawyer Media, where he oversaw operations at both publications while also producing daily news and feature-length articles. His tenure in B2B publishing stretches back into the print era, and he has served as Editor in Chief on four national trade publications. Since 1999, Paul has volunteered as the newsletter editor of passenger rail advocacy groups (one national, one local).

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