Industry leaders in the commercial and multifamily mortgage space consider today’s market unsettled, and most are confident that the unsettled conditions will slowly stabilize as 2023 progresses, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) 2023 Commercial Real Estate Finance (CREF) Outlook Survey. However, survey respondents aren’t expecting smooth sailing once the clouds dissipate. 

“Leaders of top commercial real estate finance firms believe that overall uncertainty will dissipate over the course of the year, but with a host of factors that will drag –rather than boost – the markets in 2023,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s head of commercial real estate research.  

The factors include office market fundamentals, short-term interest rates, inflation, long-term interest rates, the broader economy, and adjustable rate and short-term loans maturing in today’s market. “Industrial and apartment market fundamentals and changes in the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic are the only factors seen by more leaders as positive than negative for the market,” Woodwell said. 

Among other findings, the survey revealed that CRE finance leaders expect to have a slightly stronger appetite for lending than would-be borrowers will have for borrowing.