JLL Sees “First-Mover Advantage” in Global Refinancing Gap
An estimated $3.1 trillion of commercial real estate assets globally will have maturing debt by the end of 2025, according to JLL’s Global Capital Outlook research. The current refinancing shortfall for these loan maturities is an estimated $270-$570 billion, which will catalyze provide a clear advantage for investors ready to move forward in 2024, says JLL.
Currently, there’s a total of $402 billion in dry powder for commercial real estate sitting on the sidelines. However, a clearer picture is already emerging as global CRE sees a growing number of bidders re-enter the market, according to JLL’s proprietary Bid Intensity Index. This movement is being driven particularly by activity from private investors and select institutional capital; the U.S. is furthest along in its price adjustment cycle, followed by Europe and Asia Pacific.
“This reset in values will both challenge capital and catalyze liquidity,” said Richard Bloxam, CEO, capital markets at JLL. “There is absolutely uniform understanding that pricing has changed. Given the quantum of dry powder, there will be a considerable first-mover advantage for capital that can deploy quickly and mobilize around opportunities as market fundamentals improve.”
Paul Bubny serves as Senior Content Director for Connect Commercial Real Estate, a role to which he brings 16-plus years’ experience covering the commercial real estate industry and 30-plus years in business-to-business journalism. In this capacity, he oversees daily operations while also reporting on both local/regional markets and national trends, covering individual transactions across all property types, as well as delving into broader subject matter. He produces 7-10 daily news stories per day and works with the Connect team and clients to develop longer-form content, ranging from Q&As to thought-leadership pieces.
Prior to joining Connect, Paul was Managing Editor for both Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com at American Lawyer Media, where he oversaw operations at both publications while also producing daily news and feature-length articles. His tenure in B2B publishing stretches back into the print era, and he has served as Editor in Chief on four national trade publications.
Since 1999, Paul has volunteered as the newsletter editor of passenger rail advocacy groups (one national, one local).