The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center released its 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast – and the news isn’t too good. Forecasters anticipate that from June 1 through November 30, there is an 85% of an above-normal season. Specifically, NOAA is anticipating up to 25 named storms, with four to seven storms classified as “major hurricanes.”

“With near-record sea surface temperatures and the probable shift to La Niña conditions towards the peak months, we have the ingredients for an active hurricane season,” CoreLogic’s Vice President, Hazard & Risk Management Maiclaire Bolton-Smith told Connect CRE.

Certainly, things can change between now and the end of the year, and climate predictions these days are notoriously tricky. Still, CoreLogic’s just-released “Hurricane Risk Report: 2024” suggests that CRE and property owners need to prepare. “Underestimating the impact of natural catastrophes creates a discrepancy between the expected and actual risk,” the report said. The result is “a potentially unstable and dangerous financial situation where insurance payouts exceed the premiums collected.”

Wind Resiliency Score at Work

As part of its report, CoreLogic analyzed Florida’s vulnerabilities through Hurricane Wind and Coastal Storm Surge Risk Scores and its newer Wind Resiliency Score. The latter considers a building’s characteristics and resilience to wind damage, as well as size, age, type of construction, building use and other standards.

In the report, Wind Resiliency analyzed Florida homes, detailing a 1-100 scoring system at the individual property level. “This tool re-imagines how carriers in the Florida market assess property to hurricane-force damages,” Bolton-Smith explained. “The higher score indicates a home is higher risk and less resilient to a hurricane.”

While the report focused on Florida homes, CoreLogic also projected the ground-up damage and gross loss caused by wind and storm damage in Houston and New York.

An active hurricane season could be costly in terms of property damage and loss of life. Said the report: “If the year 2005 was repeated in 2024 – a year in which Hurricanes Katrina, Wilma, Rita, Dennis and Ophelia all made landfall in the U.S. – the ground-up damage would approach $160 billion.

Preparation is Key

While an active season might create nail-biting scenarios, Bolton-Smith acknowledged that advanced technology and available data from NOAA, the National Hurricane Center and other meteorological organizations can provide warnings about community-impacting storms. “This gives homeowners and insurers crucial time to prepare and, if necessary, evacuate before a hurricane makes landfall,” she commented.

But communities and property owners don’t need to wait until storms to start preparation now. Bolton-Smith suggested that municipalities prepare for hurricanes by increasing public awareness, updating and communicating emergency plans and ensuring they have supplies and resources to support their communities. Meanwhile, property owners (homeowners and commercial real estate) should review insurance policies, provide adequate coverage and reinforce and protect buildings. Reinforcing windows and doors with plywood are also helpful.

“If you know your risk, you can accelerate your recovery,” Bolton-Smith added.