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Green Street: CRE Prices May Have Hit Bottom

The Green Street Commercial Property Price Index decreased by 3% in November. The all-
property index—a measure of pricing for institutional-quality commercial real estate—is down 22%
from its March 2022 peak, the Newport Beach, CA-based analytics company said.

“The rise in bond yields that occurred in September and October essentially froze the transaction market,” said Peter Rothemund, co-head of strategic research at Green Street. “The good news is that bonds have staged an epic rally since, and commercial property is now fairly priced vs. corporate bonds. Property pricing may well have hit bottom.”

Over the past 12 months, all but one property type tracked by Green Street posted single- or double-digit declines in pricing. The sole exception was the mall sector, where pricing ticked up slightly.

The steepest decline in pricing over the past month was in self-storage, where prices dropped by 7.6%, according to Green Street data. For pricing drops from the March ’22 peak, the most dramatic have been office with a 35% decline and apartments with a 30% decline. Conversely, the smallest decline in pricing was in the lodging sector.

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About Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny serves as Senior Content Director for Connect Commercial Real Estate, a role to which he brings 16-plus years’ experience covering the commercial real estate industry and 30-plus years in business-to-business journalism. In this capacity, he oversees daily operations while also reporting on both local/regional markets and national trends, covering individual transactions across all property types, as well as delving into broader subject matter. He produces 7-10 daily news stories per day and works with the Connect team and clients to develop longer-form content, ranging from Q&As to thought-leadership pieces. Prior to joining Connect, Paul was Managing Editor for both Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com at American Lawyer Media, where he oversaw operations at both publications while also producing daily news and feature-length articles. His tenure in B2B publishing stretches back into the print era, and he has served as Editor in Chief on four national trade publications. Since 1999, Paul has volunteered as the newsletter editor of passenger rail advocacy groups (one national, one local).

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