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Green Street 2019 Sector Outlooks: Drivers Beyond E-Commerce

Green Street Advisors 2019 U.S. Outlooks for apartment, industrial, office, and retail sectors reveals rising development obstacles in the industrial sector. Yet, enhancements are envisioned ahead for strip centers in Green Street’s Trade Area Power (TAP) Scores.

Green Street Advisors’ lead analyst Eric Frankel writes in an industrial outlook that new analysis reveals that despite the robust e-commerce-fueled industrial demand, supply has not kept pace. There is significantly greater difficulty in accessing suitable sites for development versus prior periods, leading to a much stronger correlation between markets with rent growth and meaningful regulatory burdens.

Contributing factors to lower supply include cumbersome entitlements, rising land and labor costs, scarce availability of land in population-dense locations, and competition with other property types. As a result, Green Street’s forecasts for industrial are far above the inflation-like rent growth expected for other major sectors.

Meanwhile, strip centers are local businesses, and demographics play a vital part in assessing a property’s long-term growth profile and cap rate. Green Street created Trade Area Power (TAP) Scores to help quantify demand and compare the quality of locations in a singular metric. All things equal, a higher TAP score equates to higher potential demand. The Bay Area markets and D.C. possess the highest TAP Scores in the country.


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About Dennis Kaiser

Dennis Kaiser is Vice President of Content and Public Relations for Connect Commercial Real Estate. Dennis is a communications leader with more than 30 years of experience including as a journalist and in corporate and agency marketing communications roles. He is responsible for Connect’s client content operations and is involved in a range of initiatives ranging from content strategy, message development, copywriting, media relations, social media and content marketing services. In his most recent corporate communications roles, he led a regional public relations effort across Southern California for CBRE, played a key marketing role on JLL’s national retail team, and was responsible for directing the global public relations effort at ValleyCrest, the nation’s largest commercial landscape services company. In addition to his vast commercial real estate experience, Dennis has worked on communications and launch strategies for a number of residential projects such as Disney’s Celebration in Florida, Ritter Ranch in Palmdale California (7,200 homes, 22,000 acres), WaterColor in Florida and PremierGarage in Phoenix. Dennis’s agency background included firms such as Idea Hall and Macy + Associates. He has earned an outstanding reputation with organization leaders as a trusted advisor, strategic program implementer, consensus builder and exceptional collaborator. Dennis has developed and managed national communications programs for Fortune 500 companies to start-ups, both public and private. He’s successfully worked with journalists across the globe representing clients involved in major-breaking news stories, product launches, media tours, and company news announcements. Dennis has been involved in a host of charitable and community organizations including the American Cancer Society, Easter Seals, BoyScouts, Chrysalis Foundation, Freedom For Life, HOLA, L.A.’s BEST, Reach Out and Read, Super Bowl Host Committee, and Thunderbirds Charities.

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