National CRE News In Your Inbox.
Sign up for Connect emails to stay informed with CRE stories that are 150 words or less.
Fitch Sees “Deteriorating” 2026 Outlook for CMBS, Other Structured Finance Sectors
With CMBS ratings the most at risk, Fitch Ratings said its asset performance outlook for about half of North American structured finance (SF) sectors is “deteriorating” for 2026. Fitch has assigned a Negative Rating Outlook to 21% of Fitch-rated CMBS. The 2026 outlook for the remaining SF sectors is “neutral.“
“We expect CMBS asset performance across office, hotel and retail segments to deteriorate in 2026, as office delinquencies peak, consumer confidence and spending wanes, demand softens, and capex and operating expenses rise,” the rating agency said Monday. However, easing supply and recovering demand should support industrial CMBS performance, with data center performance also expected to be stable.
More broadly, Fitch said, “Persistent labor market and cost-of-living pressures, amid trade policy and tariff uncertainty, will drive asset performance deterioration. Some prime sectors will face pressure and lower-income and non-prime borrowers will remain vulnerable to macroeconomic slowdowns.”
- ◦Financing
- ◦Economy
