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Fitch Lowers Outlooks for Hotel, Multifamily and Industrial Through 2023 

Fitch Ratings lowered its U.S. CMBS 2022 hotel, multifamily and industrial sector outlooks to neutral from improving following a broad, mid-year reassessment of all sectors. Downward revisions of hotel, industrial and multifamily outlooks reflect deterioration in Fitch’s macroeconomic outlook and mounting headwinds anticipated through 2023. 

Although risk and uncertainty have risen, overall asset performance for U.S. CMBS is expected to be neutral as property cash flows continue their recovery from pandemic lows. The rating agency lowered its U.S. GDP growth forecasts to 2.9% in June from March’s forecast of 3.5% “with expectations for a series of interest rate hikes to counter higher inflation, which is expected to average 7.8% in 2022, up from 2021’s average of 6.9%.” 

Outlooks for office and retail remain unchanged at neutral. Fitch said these sectors continue to face ongoing secular challenges, with a bifurcation of asset performance trends among underlying subsectors and by property quality.

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About Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny serves as Senior Content Director for Connect Commercial Real Estate, a role to which he brings 13-plus years’ experience covering the commercial real estate industry and 30-plus years in business-to-business journalism. In this capacity, he oversees daily operations while also reporting on both local/regional markets and national trends, covering individual transactions across all property types, as well as delving into broader subject matter. He produces 15-20 daily news stories per day and works with the Connect team and clients to develop longer-form content, ranging from Q&As to thought-leadership pieces. Prior to joining Connect, Paul was Managing Editor for both Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com at American Lawyer Media, where he oversaw operations at both publications while also producing daily news and feature-length articles. His tenure in B2B publishing stretches back into the print era, and he has served as Editor in Chief on four national trade publications. Since 1999, Paul has volunteered as the newsletter editor of passenger rail advocacy groups (one national, one local).

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