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National  + Hospitality  | 

Fitch: Hotel RevPAR Will Take Five Years to Rebound

With RevPAR not expected to fully recover for five years, Fitch Ratings said it would continue the Rating Watch Negative (RWN) assessment for all Fitch-rated U.S. CMBS single-borrower hotel transactions. “The current uncertainty surrounding the severity and duration of the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on the hotel sector is precluding the removal of the RWN,” according to Fitch.

The ratings agency predicted “an unprecedented decline in hotel revenues” this year.

Fitch is forecasting that trailing 12-month RevPAR revenue “will not recover to its prior cycle peak in nominal terms for approximately 60 months.”

However, as hotels reopen and if there’s sustained recovery in revenues from the current trough, Fitch anticipates it will be able to resolve the RWN status on senior bonds.

“These actions will occur in stages as the recovery gains traction and will be on a deal-by-deal basis over the next six months,” Fitch reported.

For comments, questions or concerns, please contact Paul Bubny

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About Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny serves as Senior Content Director for Connect Commercial Real Estate, a role to which he brings 16-plus years’ experience covering the commercial real estate industry and 30-plus years in business-to-business journalism. In this capacity, he oversees daily operations while also reporting on both local/regional markets and national trends, covering individual transactions across all property types, as well as delving into broader subject matter. He produces 7-10 daily news stories per day and works with the Connect team and clients to develop longer-form content, ranging from Q&As to thought-leadership pieces. Prior to joining Connect, Paul was Managing Editor for both Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com at American Lawyer Media, where he oversaw operations at both publications while also producing daily news and feature-length articles. His tenure in B2B publishing stretches back into the print era, and he has served as Editor in Chief on four national trade publications. Since 1999, Paul has volunteered as the newsletter editor of passenger rail advocacy groups (one national, one local).

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