Comerica Bank’s Texas Economic Activity Index decreased in February to 114.1. February’s index reading was 15 percent above the recent low of 99.5 set in June 2020. The index averaged 112.1 points for all of 2020, 13.5 points below the average for 2019. January’s index reading was 114.6.

The index declined in February as the state was caught in the grip of a winter freeze. The February cold snap broke a seven-month winning streak for the Texas Index. The extreme cold combined with strain on the state’s power grid and municipal water systems resulted in loss of life and damage estimates in upwards of $200 billion.

However, there has been a quick resumption of positive momentum this spring. Comerica expects strong economic growth in Texas through the remainder of this year. The six index components that were positive in February were nonfarm employment, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), house prices, drilling rig count, total state trade and hotel occupancy. The three negative components were housing starts, industrial electricity demand and sales tax revenue. The impact of the winter freeze on Comerica’s Texas Index is somewhat blunted due to the smoothing process required for high frequency regional data.