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Fannie Mae Still Sees Recession Looming; Soft Landing a Possibility

Despite ending the year on stronger-than-anticipated footing, the economy is still expected to slip into a modest recession beginning in the first half of 2023, according to Fannie Mae’s  Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. The ESR Group views the current rate of consumption as unsustainable relative to disposable income and forecasts that an eventual retrenchment of the consumer will be a major factor in the upcoming economic contraction.  

The ESR Group predicts 2023 GDP growth of negative 0.6%, one-tenth lower than its previous forecast. Noting cooling inflationary pressure in the past three Consumer Price Index reports, the group believes the Federal Reserve is likely nearing its eventual terminal rate but notes that upside risk remains for tighter-for-longer monetary policy. 

“There are economic signals pointing to recession but also signs that a ‘soft landing’ may be in the offing,” said Doug Duncan, SVP and Chief Economist, Fannie Mae. 

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Inside The Story

Fannie Mae's ESR Group

About Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny serves as Senior Content Director for Connect Commercial Real Estate, a role to which he brings 13-plus years’ experience covering the commercial real estate industry and 30-plus years in business-to-business journalism. In this capacity, he oversees daily operations while also reporting on both local/regional markets and national trends, covering individual transactions across all property types, as well as delving into broader subject matter. He produces 15-20 daily news stories per day and works with the Connect team and clients to develop longer-form content, ranging from Q&As to thought-leadership pieces. Prior to joining Connect, Paul was Managing Editor for both Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com at American Lawyer Media, where he oversaw operations at both publications while also producing daily news and feature-length articles. His tenure in B2B publishing stretches back into the print era, and he has served as Editor in Chief on four national trade publications. Since 1999, Paul has volunteered as the newsletter editor of passenger rail advocacy groups (one national, one local).

  • ◦Economy
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