Fannie Mae expects GDP growth of 2.2% this year, down from 3.1% in 2018. The GSE’s Economic and Strategic Research Group is also predicting just one hike by the Federal Reserve to the federal funds rate during 2019.
In its February forecast update, Fannie Mae cites a smaller boost from previously-enacted federal fiscal policies, moderating business investment growth, and a widening of the trade deficit as key drivers behind the expected year-over-year decrease in headline growth.
First-quarter growth projections were revised downward to 1.7%, while housing sales are expected to be flat. Slowing global economic growth and trade uncertainty remain downside risks.
“We reduced Q1 growth expectations slightly, but our forecast for full-year 2019 growth remains unchanged,” said Fannie’s chief economist, Doug Duncan. “The labor market is strong, unemployment is at a very low level historically, and wages are rising modestly, enticing workers to come off the sidelines.”
Paul Bubny serves as Senior Content Director for Connect Commercial Real Estate, a role to which he brings 13-plus years’ experience covering the commercial real estate industry and 30-plus years in business-to-business journalism. In this capacity, he oversees daily operations while also reporting on both local/regional markets and national trends, covering individual transactions across all property types, as well as delving into broader subject matter. He produces 15-20 daily news stories per day and works with the Connect team and clients to develop longer-form content, ranging from Q&As to thought-leadership pieces.
Prior to joining Connect, Paul was Managing Editor for both Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com at American Lawyer Media, where he oversaw operations at both publications while also producing daily news and feature-length articles. His tenure in B2B publishing stretches back into the print era, and he has served as Editor in Chief on four national trade publications.
Since 1999, Paul has volunteered as the newsletter editor of passenger rail advocacy groups (one national, one local).
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