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Fannie Mae Sees GDP Growth Shift Away from Consumer Spending

Fannie Mae’s latest forecast still projects full-year 2021 real GDP growth of 7%, but now expects business inventory investment and government spending will account for an increasing share of near-term economic growth, as consumer spending shifts toward services and away from goods. 

Modestly weaker-than-expected consumer and construction spending data and an updated federal spending timeline led Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group to update its forecast, reflecting a larger share of 2021 economic growth occurring in the year’s second half. 

Second-quarter growth is now expected to clock in at 8.1%, down from last month’s projected 10.1%. Q3 and Q4 growth projections were revised upward by 0.7 and 1.2 percentage points, respectively, to 7.1% and 6.6%.

“While recent home price growth has been historically high, we’re forecasting further home price appreciation to moderate through the remainder of the year and into 2022,” said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae deputy chief economist. 


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About Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny serves as Senior Content Director for Connect Commercial Real Estate, a role to which he brings 13-plus years’ experience covering the commercial real estate industry and 30-plus years in business-to-business journalism. In this capacity, he oversees daily operations while also reporting on both local/regional markets and national trends, covering individual transactions across all property types, as well as delving into broader subject matter. He produces 15-20 daily news stories per day and works with the Connect team and clients to develop longer-form content, ranging from Q&As to thought-leadership pieces. Prior to joining Connect, Paul was Managing Editor for both Real Estate Forum and at American Lawyer Media, where he oversaw operations at both publications while also producing daily news and feature-length articles. His tenure in B2B publishing stretches back into the print era, and he has served as Editor in Chief on four national trade publications. Since 1999, Paul has volunteered as the newsletter editor of passenger rail advocacy groups (one national, one local).

  • ◦Economy
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