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Fannie Mae Downgrades Full-Year GDP Forecast for Second Month
For the second month in a row, expectations for near-term real GDP growth were revised downward – and outward – due to persistent supply chain disruptions and labor market tightness, according to the September 2021 commentary from the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group.
The ESR Group now projects full-year 2021 real GDP growth to reach 5.4%, percent, down from its previous forecast of 6.3%, anticipating instead that much of the previously projected second-half 2021 growth will take place in 2022. The group revised its 2022 forecast upward from 3.2% to 3.85.
“Economic growth continues to be held back by supply chain and labor market constraints, both of which we expect to continue well into 2022,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist. “We also expect inflation to remain elevated through much of next year, even if the crest of the recent surge is behind us.”
- ◦Economy
