Comerica Bank’s Texas Economic Activity Index increased in June to 125.2. June’s index reading was 26.1 percent above the recent low of 99.3 set in June 2020. The index averaged 112.1 points for all of 2020, 13.5 points below the average for 2019. This marks the fourth consecutive monthly gain for the index.

Eight of the nine index components increased in June. Those were nonfarm employment, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), house prices, industrial electricity demand, drilling rig count, total state trade, hotel occupancy and state sales tax revenue. Only the housing starts sub-index declined for the month.

Comerica expects the Texas Index to reach its pre-pandemic peak in the next couple of months. However, the current surge in COVID cases has the potential to cause more headwinds for economic activity heading into the fall. The state’s case count has resulted in dwindling hospital ICU capacity which will weigh on consumer and business confidence in the near-term. However, statewide restrictions on business activity remain unlikely at this time.