The rate of office and retail CMBS loan defaults rose in July, according to the latest research by Trepp. The six-month moving average of probability of default (PD) rates are at all-time highs for office and retail in 2017, with the industrial average almost above its mid-2010 high.
Trepp’s study looked at the number of new defaults in every period as a percentage of the total, which considers loan count, not balance. Higher recent rates mean that on a monthly basis, a larger share of outstanding loans is entering default than during the depths of the recession.
That’s not too surprising, since 2017 has experienced record loan maturity volume and when taking into consideration the denominator effect, notes Trepp. That is offset, to some degree, by the fact that defaults are only counted once when they first occur. Underlying default rate trends help investors see trends develop.
Dennis Kaiser is Vice President of Content and Public Relations for Connect Commercial Real Estate. Dennis is a communications leader with more than 30 years of experience including as a journalist and in corporate and agency marketing communications roles. He is responsible for Connect’s client content operations and is involved in a range of initiatives ranging from content strategy, message development, copywriting, media relations, social media and content marketing services.
In his most recent corporate communications roles, he led a regional public relations effort across Southern California for CBRE, played a key marketing role on JLL’s national retail team, and was responsible for directing the global public relations effort at ValleyCrest, the nation’s largest commercial landscape services company.
In addition to his vast commercial real estate experience, Dennis has worked on communications and launch strategies for a number of residential projects such as Disney’s Celebration in Florida, Ritter Ranch in Palmdale California (7,200 homes, 22,000 acres), WaterColor in Florida and PremierGarage in Phoenix.
Dennis’s agency background included firms such as Idea Hall and Macy + Associates. He has earned an outstanding reputation with organization leaders as a trusted advisor, strategic program implementer, consensus builder and exceptional collaborator.
Dennis has developed and managed national communications programs for Fortune 500 companies to start-ups, both public and private. He’s successfully worked with journalists across the globe representing clients involved in major-breaking news stories, product launches, media tours, and company news announcements.
Dennis has been involved in a host of charitable and community organizations including the American Cancer Society, Easter Seals, BoyScouts, Chrysalis Foundation, Freedom For Life, HOLA, L.A.’s BEST, Reach Out and Read, Super Bowl Host Committee, and Thunderbirds Charities.
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