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Chicago Fed Survey Sees Economic Growth “Well Below Trend”
The Chicago Fed’s latest Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) found that the Activity Index decreased to –37 in April from –8 in March, suggesting that economic growth was “well below trend” and pointing to a recession, according to the Chicago Fed. The CFSEC Manufacturing Activity Index decreased to –55 in April from –7 in March, and the CFSEC Nonmanufacturing Activity Index decreased to –24 in April from –9 in the previous month.
The survey also found that:
- Respondents’ outlooks for the U.S. economy for the next 12 months deteriorated and remained pessimistic on balance. Sixty-five percent of respondents expected a decrease in economic activity over the next 12 months.
- The pace of current hiring decreased, as did respondents’ expectations for the pace of hiring over the next 12 months. Both hiring indexes remained negative.
- Respondents’ expectations for the pace of capital spending over the next 12 months decreased, and the capital spending expectations index remained negative.
- The labor cost pressures index was unchanged, but the nonlabor cost pressures index increased. Both cost pressures indexes remained negative.
- ◦Economy
