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CBRE Sees “Moderate” Recession Mixed with Investor Opportunities in 2023

CBRE foresees a moderate recession in 2023 that will bring declines in real estate investment and leasing activity, though inflation will recede by year end and well-capitalized investors still will be able to make deals, according to the company’s 2023 U.S. Real Estate Outlook. 
 
The global services firm forecasts a slowdown in construction for most sectors in addition to declines in asset values, investment volume and leasing activity. Each sector will see different outcomes, including a widening of the gap between top-tier and lower-tier assets in the office sector, slower leasing momentum in the formerly-surging industrial & logistics and life sciences sectors and a continued rebound for retail properties. 
 
“Most areas of the U.S. economy are not as overextended as in past downturns,” said Richard Barkham, CBRE’s global chief economist and global head of research. “Next year won’t be pleasant, but neither will it be a disaster like the Global Financial Crisis. The economy will stabilize and start to improve in 2024. The recovery from there might surprise on the upside.”

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CBRE's Barkham

About Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny serves as Senior Content Director for Connect Commercial Real Estate, a role to which he brings 13-plus years’ experience covering the commercial real estate industry and 30-plus years in business-to-business journalism. In this capacity, he oversees daily operations while also reporting on both local/regional markets and national trends, covering individual transactions across all property types, as well as delving into broader subject matter. He produces 15-20 daily news stories per day and works with the Connect team and clients to develop longer-form content, ranging from Q&As to thought-leadership pieces. Prior to joining Connect, Paul was Managing Editor for both Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com at American Lawyer Media, where he oversaw operations at both publications while also producing daily news and feature-length articles. His tenure in B2B publishing stretches back into the print era, and he has served as Editor in Chief on four national trade publications. Since 1999, Paul has volunteered as the newsletter editor of passenger rail advocacy groups (one national, one local).

  • ◦Sale/Acquisition
  • ◦Economy
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