National CRE News In Your Inbox.
Sign up for Connect emails to stay informed with CRE stories that are 150 words or less.
CBRE Sees “Early Stages of Recovery” in 2024
CBRE foresees economic growth slowing in 2024, though a recession may be avoided and real estate transaction values will decline further. This will mean compelling buying opportunities, according to the company’s 2024 U.S. Real Estate Outlook.
Economists with the firm anticipate that resilient consumer spending will counter economic headwinds next year, including high interest rates and near recessions in Europe and China. CBRE predicts the U.S. unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.5% and easing inflation that will allow the Federal Reserve to reduce short-term interest rates to around 4.25% by the end of 2024 and to 3.5% in 2025.
This anticipated economic bottoming out and initial rebound will affect all commercial real estate sectors. CBRE sees lending remaining tight, property values declining further in the first half of 2024 before activity rebounds in the second half, a topping out of office vacancy and a wave of multifamily construction.
“There is a bit more real estate pain ahead, but stabilization and the early stages of recovery aren’t far behind that,” said Richard Barkham, global chief economist and global head of research. “Investment volumes will be down overall for 2024 but will start an upturn in the second half. And leasing activity will pick up a bit from a sluggish 2023.”
- ◦Economy
