Business-Cycle Index Falls Below LTA

The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded at an annualized rate of 4.5% in February 2019. According to the monthly report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the index was below its long-term average of 6%. While unemployment was 3% in February, and job growth expanded at an annualized rate of 2.3% ending in February, hourly wages declined slightly.

Also declining were median home prices, which stood at $301,418, a decrease of 1% year over year. However, sales were on the rise, as existing-home sales increased 7.1% month over month, and 4.1% from the year before. Housing affordability remained relatively unchanged, falling from 54.5% (Q4 2018) to 54.3% (Q1 2019). The Fed noted that, in general, housing affordability in the Texas major metros has been on the decline since Q1 2013.

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