BREAKING NEWS: Strong June Jobs Report Tempers Immediate Fed Rate Cut Expectations

June nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000, beating economists’ expectations for a 110,000 increase and slightly ahead of May’s upwardly revised 144,000 (from 139,000), according to new data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%, below the 4.3% consensus and May’s 4.2% print. April and May’s job gains were revised up by a combined 16,000 jobs, adding to the labor market’s solid footing.

Average hourly earnings climbed 0.2% for the month and 3.7% year over year, a sign that wage growth remains steady without fueling inflation — and may point to ongoing competition for workers despite a cooling hiring backdrop.

The report highlights the economy’s surprising resilience in the face of mounting headwinds from President Trump’s tariffs and government job cuts. It also contrasts with weaker private sector hiring data released earlier this week by ADP, fueling the debate over whether the trade war will ultimately push the Fed to cut rates sooner rather than later.

For now, the stronger numbers reinforce the Fed’s patient approach. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing a roughly 5% chance of a rate cut at the July meeting. A September cut is more likely, with odds of a quarter-point reduction standing at 74%.

Treasuries sold off immediately following the report, lifting the 10-year U.S. yield to 4.35% from 4.28% pre-release — a notable jump as traders dial back expectations for imminent easing.

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About Joe Palmisano

Joe Palmisano is Editorial Director for Connect Money, where he brings nearly three decades experience of market insights as a financial journalist, analyst and senior portfolio manager for leading financial publications, advisory firms, and hedge funds. In his role as Editorial Director, Joe is responsible for the selection of content and creation of daily business news covering the financial markets, including Alternative Assets, Direct Investment and Financial Advisory services. Before joining Connect Money, Joe was a financial journalist for the Wall Street Journal, regularly publishing feature stories and trend pieces on the foreign exchange, global fixed income and equity markets. Joe parlayed his experience as a financial journalist into roles as a Senior Research Analyst and Portfolio Manager, writing daily and weekly market analysis and managing a FX and US equity portfolio. Joe was also a contributing writer for industry magazines and publications, including SFO Magazine and the CMT Association. Joe earned a B.S.B.A. in Finance from The American University. He holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation and is a member of the CFA Institute.

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