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CPI for March Prints Cooler than Expected but Before Tariff Upheaval

The consumer price index rose 2.4% year-over-year in March, per data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists had forecasted a 2.6% annual increase, a modest slowdown from February’s 2.8%. On a monthly basis, headline inflation edged up 0.1% in March, aligning with economists’ predictions of a 0.1% rise, down from February’s 0.2% pace.

Core CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month compared with a 0.3% consensus and 0.2% in February. Year-over-year was 2.8%, the lowest since 2021, compared with 3.0% consensus and 3.1% the prior month.

U.S. inflation appeared to be moderating in early 2025, yet new tariffs and policy uncertainty are stoking fresh concerns. Typically, a dip in year-over-year price growth would be a positive signal. However, the March data presents a challenge for investors, policymakers, and businesses to interpret with confidence given tariffs have not figured into the data yet.

While March CPI data reinforces a cooling pattern, markets are adjusting to the potential inflationary impact of broad trade policies and the Federal Reserve’s possible reaction.

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Bureau of Labor Statistics

About Joe Palmisano

Joe Palmisano is Editorial Director for Connect Money, where he brings nearly three decades experience of market insights as a financial journalist, analyst and senior portfolio manager for leading financial publications, advisory firms, and hedge funds. In his role as Editorial Director, Joe is responsible for the selection of content and creation of daily business news covering the financial markets, including Alternative Assets, Direct Investment and Financial Advisory services. Before joining Connect Money, Joe was a financial journalist for the Wall Street Journal, regularly publishing feature stories and trend pieces on the foreign exchange, global fixed income and equity markets. Joe parlayed his experience as a financial journalist into roles as a Senior Research Analyst and Portfolio Manager, writing daily and weekly market analysis and managing a FX and US equity portfolio. Joe was also a contributing writer for industry magazines and publications, including SFO Magazine and the CMT Association. Joe earned a B.S.B.A. in Finance from The American University. He holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation and is a member of the CFA Institute.

  • ◦Economy
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