California’s share of the U.S. total merchandise export trade slipped to its lowest level in decades according to a Beacon Economics analysis of trade Census Bureau trade statistics. The Golden State’s share of total U.S. exports was 8.8% in June, down from 10.2% a year earlier and 10.1% pre-pandemic.

Heightened rates of inflation in the United States and abroad continue to complicate efforts to gauge the true value of exports from California, but Beacon claims there is no question that, in real terms, the state’s export trade actually contracted in June.

“The gap between nominal and real export values is the widest we’ve seen in nearly two decades,” said Jock O’Connell, Beacon’s International Trade Advisor. The Census Bureau reports that while U.S. merchandise exports were nominally up 23.6% from 2021, the gain was just 7.5% when adjusted for price changes.

There is some good news. Transport costs are declining and inflation appears to be receding, but with the strong dollar, foreign buyers must dig deeper to purchase U.S. goods, causing a serious drag on exports.