Beacon Economics’ Thornberg Sees a V-Shaped Rebound
The title of the outlook from Christopher Thornberg states the outlook’s thesis: “The Post COVID-19 Recovery: A Case for the ‘V.” The Beacon Economics founding partner cites the U.S. economy’s strong fundamentals, even as he charts the short-term damage from the shutdown to help contain the virus.
“The second quarter will definitely post record negatives, but that will be followed by record positives in the last half of the year as we quickly return to normalcy,” Thornberg writes. “We see GDP growth as follows: 0% in Q1, -30% in Q2, 25% in Q3, and 5% in Q4, with unemployment falling back to the low 4’s over the year.”
He notes that in contrast to what we saw in the Great Recession, “The vast majority of people currently applying for unemployment are being laid off from profitable, sustainable businesses that have been shuttered temporarily as a result of public health mandates.”
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