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Beacon Economics’ Thornberg Sees a V-Shaped Rebound

The title of the outlook from Christopher Thornberg states the outlook’s thesis: “The Post COVID-19 Recovery: A Case for the ‘V.” The Beacon Economics founding partner cites the U.S. economy’s strong fundamentals, even as he charts the short-term damage from the shutdown to help contain the virus.

“The second quarter will definitely post record negatives, but that will be followed by record positives in the last half of the year as we quickly return to normalcy,” Thornberg writes. “We see GDP growth as follows: 0% in Q1, -30% in Q2, 25% in Q3, and 5% in Q4, with unemployment falling back to the low 4’s over the year.”

He notes that in contrast to what we saw in the Great Recession, “The vast majority of people currently applying for unemployment are being laid off from profitable, sustainable businesses that have been shuttered temporarily as a result of public health mandates.”

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About Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny serves as Senior Content Director for Connect Commercial Real Estate, a role to which he brings 13-plus years’ experience covering the commercial real estate industry and 30-plus years in business-to-business journalism. In this capacity, he oversees daily operations while also reporting on both local/regional markets and national trends, covering individual transactions across all property types, as well as delving into broader subject matter. He produces 15-20 daily news stories per day and works with the Connect team and clients to develop longer-form content, ranging from Q&As to thought-leadership pieces. Prior to joining Connect, Paul was Managing Editor for both Real Estate Forum and at American Lawyer Media, where he oversaw operations at both publications while also producing daily news and feature-length articles. His tenure in B2B publishing stretches back into the print era, and he has served as Editor in Chief on four national trade publications. Since 1999, Paul has volunteered as the newsletter editor of passenger rail advocacy groups (one national, one local).

  • ◦Economy