Austin Business-Cycle Index Marks Decade of Consecutive Expansion

The Austin Business-Cycle Index — an indication of economic activity in Texas’ capital city — marked more than 10 years of consecutive expansion as of November 2019. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the index expanded slightly below its long-term average of 6.1%, likely due to labor-market tightness which, in turn, is constraining job growth.

While unemployment remained at 2.7%, the labor force grew at a 2.1% annualized rate; below 2017’s 3.6% and the 2.7% reported in 2018.

Meanwhile, the housing affordability rate has increased, standing at 66.4 in Q3 2019, versus the 62.4 in the second quarter. Existing home sales increased 3.1% month-over-month in November, though overall home sales declined 4% year to date. The median home price was at $314,224, a 1% year-over-year increase, while home inventory remained at 2.2 months, well below the six months considered a balanced market.

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