Solid employment growth, combined with a strong housing market and decent manufacturing activity meant the Austin Business Cycle Index expanded at a 6.1% annualized rate in June 2018, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The Business Cycle Index’s long-term rate is 6%, and the Dallas Fed pointed out that the index has grown within 1 percentage point of its long-run average since mid-2016.

Metro payrolls expanded by a 2.5% annualized rate over the three months through June, with growth dispersed across most industries. Existing-home sales dropped 2% in June, though total existing-home sales so far in 2018 grew 4.8% year over year. Home inventories remained at 2.6 months, well below the six-month supply considered a balanced market.

The Dallas Fed analysts noted that the manufacturing sector experienced “continued but subdued growth” in June. While new orders, inventory and order backlog indexes grew in June, production, employment, supplier delivery and prices indexes contracted.

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