Austin Business-Cycle Index Expands Amid Tepid Labor Force Growth

The Austin Business-Cycle index expanded in June 2019, at an annualized rate of 8.1%. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the expansion was due to “historically low unemployment rates and robust job growth, suggesting healthy performance in the metro.”

June’s unemployment rate stood at 2.6%, while payrolls increased at a 4.7% annualized rate during the three months ending in June. However, the metro’s labor-force growth was at 0.8%, annualized. This was well below the 3.6% and 2.7% expansion reported in 2017 and 2018, respectively, the Dallas Fed noted. The metrics “further (signaled) an increasingly tight labor market in Austin,” Dallas Fed analysts commented.

Also active was the housing market; aggregate sales volumes in Q1 and Q1 2019 increased by 3%, year over year. Inventory stood at 2.4 months in June, well below the six months considered a balanced market.

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