California + Retail | February 1, 2017

Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast Unchanged Following Election

The Winter/Spring 2017 Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast Commercial Real Estate Survey, taken entirely after the Presidential election, shows no discernible economic shift, despite Hillary Clinton being the heavy favorite among California residents. The biannual survey projects a three-year-ahead outlook for the state’s CRE industry and forecasts potential opportunities and challenges affecting the major property sectors.

Observations from 2016 remained unchanged, and the natural cycle in CRE appears to be running its course somewhat independent of the presidential contest.

UCLA Anderson’s Jerry Nickelsburg said this may be due “to the upward bump in consumer confidence and stock prices, and in part because the regulatory environment in California is not likely to change much. While the outlook for 2017 may look relatively good, the strong move towards online shopping, higher interest rates, a continued redefinition of the office environment, and the dropping of fertility rates [remain the] driving factors in commercial real estate.”

Among the findings for the retail sector include:

Retail continues to undergo a profound change from distribution conduits to experience-shopping venues
Online purchases shift retail demand from brick and mortar distribution to warehouse distribution systems
Continued strength in industrial space hasn’t turned developers against the sector, except in LA and Orange County
Tax cuts and upscale shopping in the Bay Area may make developers optimistic overall, but perhaps not so much as to jump in with a new retail project
In SoCal, spending power has come to upscale consumers a little later, and the refurbishment of somewhat tired malls is now attractive

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About Dennis Kaiser

Dennis Kaiser is Vice President of Content and Public Relations for Connect Commercial Real Estate. Dennis is a communications leader with more than 30 years of experience including as a journalist and in corporate and agency marketing communications roles. He is responsible for Connect’s client content operations and is involved in a range of initiatives ranging from content strategy, message development, copywriting, media relations, social media and content marketing services. In his most recent corporate communications roles, he led a regional public relations effort across Southern California for CBRE, played a key marketing role on JLL’s national retail team, and was responsible for directing the global public relations effort at ValleyCrest, the nation’s largest commercial landscape services company. In addition to his vast commercial real estate experience, Dennis has worked on communications and launch strategies for a number of residential projects such as Disney’s Celebration in Florida, Ritter Ranch in Palmdale California (7,200 homes, 22,000 acres), WaterColor in Florida and PremierGarage in Phoenix. Dennis’s agency background included firms such as Idea Hall and Macy + Associates. He has earned an outstanding reputation with organization leaders as a trusted advisor, strategic program implementer, consensus builder and exceptional collaborator. Dennis has developed and managed national communications programs for Fortune 500 companies to start-ups, both public and private. He’s successfully worked with journalists across the globe representing clients involved in major-breaking news stories, product launches, media tours, and company news announcements. Dennis has been involved in a host of charitable and community organizations including the American Cancer Society, Easter Seals, BoyScouts, Chrysalis Foundation, Freedom For Life, HOLA, L.A.’s BEST, Reach Out and Read, Super Bowl Host Committee, and Thunderbirds Charities.

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